What Moscow, Beijing and Delhi think of Biden v Trump rematch

When Americans choose their next president, the contest is always closely watched around the world.
There are countless ways US foreign policy – and the actions of the White House – has an impact on different parts of the globe.
American influence abroad is sure to play a part in the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday.
But it’s not just in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza that this election matters.
Eight of the BBC’s foreign correspondents explain why this election rematch is making waves where they are.

Russians will watch closely for instability

By Steve Rosenberg, Russia editor, Moscow

Imagine you’re Vladimir Putin. Who would you prefer in the White House?

The man who’s called you “a killer” and pledged to stand by Ukraine? (that’s Joe Biden).

Or the candidate who has criticised US military assistance to Kyiv and said he’d encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any Nato member country that doesn’t meet defence spending guidelines (a certain Donald Trump).

Always keen to surprise, the Kremlin leader has gone on record as saying he’d actually prefer Joe Biden to keep his job because of his “predictability”.

Such a public endorsement, though, should be taken with an extremely large pinch of Russian salt. Moscow is likely to view the election of a Nato-sceptic, Ukraine-sceptic US president as three lemons for Russia on the geo-political fruit machine.

Not that there’s a guaranteed pay-out for Moscow. The Kremlin was left disappointed by the first Trump presidency.

In 2016 one Russian official admitted to me having celebrated Mr Trump’s victory with a cigar and a bottle of champagne. But the champagne went flat. The Russian authorities had expected an improvement in Russia-US relations – that never materialised.

Who’s to say a second Trump presidency wouldn’t leave Moscow feeling similarly underwhelmed.

Whoever wins the race for the White House, the Russian authorities will be watching closely for signs of post-election political instability and polarisation in America and looking for ways to benefit.

Biggest differences are over Taiwan

By Laura Bicker, China correspondent, Beijing

Both candidates are vying to be tough on Beijing and have similar economic policies to combat China’s rise including raising tariffs on cheap Chinese goods.

But they have very different approaches to dealing with China’s regional influence.

Biden has shored up relationships there, in the hope that a united front sends a clear message to an increasingly assertive Beijing.

But when president, Trump focused less on being a statesman and more on what he saw was the “best deal”. He threatened to remove US troops from South Korea unless Seoul paid Washington more money.

The biggest difference between the two is on Taiwan.

On multiple occasions, Biden has reiterated a pledge to come to the self-governing island’s defence if President Xi makes good on his promise to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary.

But Trump has accused Taiwan of undermining American businesses and he has expressed opposition to a US bill which sent aid there. That led some to question whether he would be willing to come to Taipei’s aid if needed.

When the US votes, China is unlikely to have a favourite in the fight.

In Beijing’s view, an unpredictable Trump could weaken and divide US allies in the region – but he could also create another trade war.

They won’t be too keen on another four years of Biden either. They believe his alliance building has the potential to create a new Cold War.

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