Victory for ‘India Out’? What ‘pro-China’ Muizzu’s win in Maldives means for island nation & Delhi

Mohamed Muizzu, from People’s National Congress-Progressive Party of Maldives coalition, won around 54% votes in presidential polls against 46% for ‘India-friendly’ incumbent Ibrahim Solih.

Maldivian president-elect Mohamed Muizzu (left) with outgoing president Ibrahim Solih | Photo: X/@Muizzu2023

New Delhi: The people of Maldives have chosen “pro-China” leader Mohamed Muizzu to lead the nation against “India-friendly” incumbent Ibrahim Solih in a presidential vote.

The results of the election were declared Saturday, with Muizzu from the People’s National Congress-Progressive Party of Maldives (PNC-PPM) coalition winning around 54 percent votes against 46 per cent for the Maldivian Democratic Party’s Solih, who conceded defeat late Saturday.

Muizzu, the mayor of capital Malé till now, was a surprise candidate in the election. He will be sworn in as president on 17 November.

Following the election results, Solih congratulated Muizzu on his victory in a post on the social media platform X: “Congratulations to president-elect Muizzu. I also congratulate the people who have set a peaceful democratic example.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also sent his wishes to Muizzu. “Congratulations and greetings to Mohamed Muizzu on being elected as President of the Maldives,” he said on X Sunday.

“India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean region,” he added.

Modi’s first foreign visit after being elected to a second term as PM was to the Maldives on 8-9 June 2019.

It is believed that Muizzu’s election to the top post in the Maldives, a 100 percent Muslim nation, may have repercussions for the island nation’s ties with India.

Muizzu is part of the pro-China camp and was a minister of housing and infrastructure during the Abdulla Yameen administration (2013-2018), under which the Maldives borrowed heavily from China for construction projects.

Yameen was ousted by Solih who, along with his party, held a firm “India-first” policy – turning the 2023 presidential election into a referendum on Maldives’ foreign policy orientation.

ThePrint explains Malé’s ties with New Delhi as well as Beijing, and why Solih is believed to have lost the election.

China and India jockey for influence

During the Yameen administration, ties between New Delhi and Malé soured. Yameen’s proximity with China, crackdown on democratic dissent, and anti-India rhetoric to fuel nationalist sentiments were some of the reasons behind the souring of relations, according to an October 2022 report by Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a New Delhi-based think tank.

Following Yameen’s election in 2013, interactions between Beijing and Malé increased, with president Xi Jinping of China visiting the Maldives in 2014.

Maldives subsequently joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, under which Beijing offers investment to build railroads, ports and highways to expand trade and its reach across continents.

The two countries signed a free trade agreement and held negotiations for the establishment of a Joint Ocean Observation Centre, giving China greater access to the region, according to the ORF report.

In exchange, China offered Maldives loans and grants for mega-infrastructure projects, including the Sinamalé bridge project, connecting the island of Malé to the airport island Hulumale and another island.

The ORF report noted that, by 2018, Chinese funding to the island nation touched $1.5 billion, with only $600 million in government borrowings and $900 million as sovereign guarantees.

In 2018, Yameen asked India — which had earlier gifted two helicopters to the Maldives along with training personnel — to remove the helicopters and all military personnel from the country.

However, Solih, who won the 2018 elections, reversed course on Yameen’s policies, with a renewed focus on collaboration with India.

Source: https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/victory-for-india-out-what-pro-china-muizzus-win-in-maldives-means-for-island-nation-delhi/1786895/

Tropical Maldives heads to polls closely watched by India and China

A Maldives national flag flutters as pigeons fly past during the morning in Male February 8, 2012. REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte/file photo Acquire Licensing Rights

More than a quarter of a million people vote on Saturday for the next leader of the tropical Maldives in a closely contested election seen as a battle for influence in the high-end tourist destination between India and China.

President Ibrahim Solih, who is seeking a second five-year term in the Indian Ocean archipelago, has championed an “India-first” policy during his time in power. He appears to be slightly ahead in the polls.

The coalition backing his main rival, Mohamed Muizzu, has a record of being close to China and has launched an “India out” campaign, promising to remove a small Indian military presence of several surveillance aircraft and some 75 personnel.

Muizzu entered the fray after former President Abdulla Yameen was banned from contesting the election by the Supreme Court in August following a conviction for corruption and money laundering.

A poll of 384 people published last month by the Baani Center think tank found that 21% of respondents favoured Solih compared with 14% supporting Muizzu.

“August’s poll reveals a majority of voters, 53%, remain undecided just three weeks before the first round vote on 9 September. This month’s poll has seen the most ‘undecideds’ since Baani began its monthly poll in April,” the organisation said in a statement.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tropical-maldives-heads-polls-closely-watched-by-india-china-2023-09-09/

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