As Covid-19 cases in India on Friday recorded its highest-ever daily tally since September last year with over 6000 fresh infections amid the emergence of recombinant variant XBB.1.16, experts have said while cases may peak in the next 20 days, a fourth wave is unlikely.
Based on past trends, the peak is expected to occur within 15 to 20 days, followed by a decline Covid expert Dr Raghuwinder Parashar told India Today. “Understanding differences in virus patterns from past waves is essential because they can help us understand more and create measures to prevent virus infections. According to previous trends, the peak should be within 15 to 20 days, and then a downfall is expected,” he said.
Dr Jugal Kishore, Professor and Head of the Department of Community Medicine Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital also appeared to agree with Parashar’s statement and told the publication while the Covid cases are on the rise, the pace is slow in comparison to the previous waves and it does not seem to be highly contagious. Otherwise, the number of cases in the last two weeks would have been considerably higher, he said.
Eminent biologist Shekhar Mande told News18 on Monday that the surge in Covid cases was due to “a slightly new variant”. “Our immunity might be waning, or it might be a vaccine breakthrough mutant. But nonetheless, we will not see as many hospitalisations or deaths as in previous waves.” He added that this surge is not expected to be similar to the first wave or the devastating second wave caused by the Delta variant.