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Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in head-to-head matchup: POLL

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they’ve become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he’s too old for another term and Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect — all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.

Forty-four percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’ve gotten worse off financially under Biden’s presidency, the most for any president in ABC/Post polls since 1986. Just 37% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Still fewer approve of Biden’s performance on the economy, 30%.

On handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, Biden’s rating is even lower, with 23% approval. In terms of intensity of sentiment, 20% strongly approve of his work overall, while 45% strongly disapprove. And the 74% who say he’s too old for a second term is up 6 percentage points since May. Views that Trump is too old also are up, but to 50% in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Such is down-on-Biden sentiment that if a government shutdown occurs at month’s end, 40% say they’d chiefly blame him and the Democrats in Congress, versus 33% who’d pin it on the Republicans in Congress — even given the GOP infighting behind the budget impasse.

Trump
Trump, for his part, has improved in retrospect. When he reluctantly left office in January 2021, 38% approved of his work as president, essentially the same as Biden’s rating now. But currently, looking back, 48% say they approve of Trump’s performance when he was in office — matching his peak as president. Essentially as many — 49% — now disapprove, down from 60% when he left the White House.

Comparison with Biden may be a factor. Among the 56% of Americans who disapprove of Biden’s work in office, a wide 75% say that, looking back, they approve of Trump.

It’s also notable that Trump has an even split in his retrospective job approval rating even as most Americans continue to reject his assertion that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Sixty percent of Americans instead say Biden legitimately won, and an additional 12% have no opinion; 29% think Biden did not win legitimately.

Election
These views play into early-stage election preferences. A remarkable 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say the party should pick someone other than Biden as its nominee in 2024; just a third back Biden. Desire for a different candidate is at a numerical high, but also consistent with past results (56 to 58%) the past year.

Who, if not Biden, is an open question. In an open-ended question, 8% express a preference for Kamala Harris, 8% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with other mentions in the low single digits. Just “someone else” comes in at 20%.

Trump has far broader intraparty support; 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor him for the GOP nomination, again similar to previous results, and well ahead of his opposition. Ron DeSantis has 15% support, compared with 25% (using a slightly different question approach) in May. All others are in single digits.

Head-to-head in a hypothetical November 2024 matchup, Trump has 51% support while Biden has 42% — numerically up 3 points for Trump and down 2 points for Biden from an ABC/Post poll in February, shifts that are not statistically significant.

There’s even less change from the most recent ABC/Post poll in May, which had the race at 49-42% (again with a different, but comparable, question wording). Still, with Trump inching over 50% — and other polls showing a closer contest — a close look is warranted.

Factors
A variety of factors may be at play. Biden’s poor performance ratings, the extent of economic discontent, the immigration crisis and doubts about his age clearly are relevant. All have been the subject of extensive recent news coverage, focusing public discourse on negatives for the president. Trump, meanwhile, has used his criminal indictments to bolster his base through claims of political persecution and enjoys positive coverage of his GOP frontrunner status.

Question order can be a factor. As is customary for ABC/Post polls at this still-early stage of an election cycle, this survey asked first about Biden and Trump’s performance, economic sentiment and a handful of other issues (Ukraine aid, abortion and a government shutdown) before candidate preferences. That’s because these questions are more germane than candidate support in an election so far off. Since many results are negative toward Biden, it follows that he’s lagging in 2024 support. Nonetheless, those sentiments are real, have been consistently negative in recent surveys and clearly mark Biden’s challenges ahead.

Another possible factor is message-sending. A hypothetical vote-preference question 14 months before an election is predictive of nothing; it’s best seen as an opportunity for the public to express its like or dislike of the candidates. Biden is broadly unpopular and doubts about his suitability for a second term are extensive; wherever they end up in more than a year, a substantial number of Americans today are taking the opportunity to express their displeasure.

In one example of message-sending, among people who say Trump should be prohibited by the U.S. Constitution from serving again as president, 18% also support him over Biden for 2024. Such people seem to be expressing their antipathy toward Biden, not their support for Trump.

In terms of sampling, this survey was conducted using the ABC/Post poll’s longstanding methodology. Demographic results are typical. So are partisan preferences; 25% of respondents identify themselves as Democrats, 25% as Republicans and 42% as independents. Forty-one percent are Democrats or independents who lean toward the Democratic Party; 45% are Republicans or lean toward the GOP, consistent this year.

Additionally, survey respondents who say they voted in 2020 report having supported Biden over Trump by 50-46%, very close to the actual outcome, 51-47%.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611

ABVP sweeps DUSU poll, wins 3 of 4 seats

Winning ABVP candidates celebrate with supporters in New Delhi on Saturday. MUKESH AGGARWAL

Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) on Saturday swept the Delhi University Students’ Union (DUSU) elections, bagging three seats, including that of the president while National Students’ Union of India (NSUI) managed to clinch only one seat in the four-member union.

The RSS-affiliated ABVP won the seats of DUSU president, secretary and joint secretary by hefty margins. Tushar Dedha of ABVP won the president’s post garnering 21,555 votes to defeat NSUI’s Hitesh Gulia by 3,720 votes.

ABVP candidate Aparajita won the secretary’s post with 22,562 votes defeating Congress-backed NSUI’s Yakshna Sharma by a staggering margin of 12,820 votes. For joint secretary, Sachin Baisla of ABVP won by 9,775 votes leaving behind NSUI’s Shubham Kumar who secured 13,058 votes.

The lone NSUI candidate to emerge victorious was Abhi Dahiya who defeated his nearest rival of ABVP Sushant Dhankar for DUSU vice-president’s post by a narrow margin of 840 votes.

Chief Election Officer Prof Chander Shekhar said, “The candidates have accepted the results and there has been no issue with the counting process.”

Talking to reporters after the DUSU election results were declared, Dedha said, “ABVP’s dedication to issue-based campaigning resonated with the diverse student body of Delhi University. The substantial margins of our victories signify the deep trust and faith students have in ABVP’s ability to work for their welfare.”

NSUI and ABVP members held their posts on the two ends of Chhatra Marg on the DU North Campus, bursting crackers and raising slogans as the results were declared.

Source: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/delhi/abvp-sweeps-dusu-poll-wins-3-of-4-seats-547235

Ecuador leftist Gonzalez, businessman Noboa set to go to second round

Leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez and surprise challenger, business scion Daniel Noboa, won the first round of Ecuador’s presidential election, beating out six rivals in a race clouded by the murder of anti-graft candidate Fernando Villavicencio.

Gonzalez, a protege of former President Rafael Correa who has promised to revive his social programs, was tallying 33% support, with more than 70% of ballot boxes counted, according to figures from the National Electoral Council.

“We are celebrating because we are making history, even though so many of us have been ignored, today we begin moving toward a different history,” Gonzalez told journalists and supporters at an event in southern Quito.

Former lawmaker Daniel Noboa, son of prominent banana businessman and former presidential candidate Alvaro Noboa, was a surprise second-place with 24% of the vote.

“The Ecuadorean people have won,” the 35-year-old Noboa told journalists in Guayaquil. “The youth candidate, of the people who are seeking hope, who want to change Ecuador, has triumphed.”

Noboa said he looked forward to a second round against Gonzalez, scheduled for Oct. 15.

Anti-corruption candidate Villavicencio, who was fatally shot as he left a campaign event earlier this month, was tallying 16%.

Villavicencio has been replaced by fellow investigative journalist Christian Zurita, but appeared on the ballot because they were printed before his murder. Zurita, along with several other candidates, conceded defeat on Sunday evening.

Candidates had pledged to fight sharp increases in crime, which the current government blames on drug gangs, and improve the struggling economy, whose woes have caused an uptick in unemployment and migration.

Security took center stage in the contest after Villavicencio’s killing. Other candidates have reported attacks against them, although in several cases police have said that the violence was not directed at the hopefuls themselves.

Gonzalez supporters gathering ahead of a speech by her said they wanted a return of Correa’s programs and better work opportunities.

“I feel that as a woman she will fight for the people,” said Fany Tarqui, 52, who brought her two daughters and their dog to the rally. “I want peace and sources of work.”

“Work is scarce for everyone, that’s why migration has gotten so high,” said retired teacher Wilson Lopez, 64.

Ecuadorian presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez speaks during a presidential election night event, in Quito, Ecuador August 20, 2023. REUTERS/Karen Toro

Six suspects, all Colombians who police say belong to criminal gangs, were charged with Villavicencio’s murder and are being held in custody. Another suspect died from wounds sustained in a shootout with authorities.

CYBER ATTACKS
A webpage set up for some Ecuadoreans living abroad to cast their ballots suffered cyber attacks, the head of the national electoral council said, but the integrity of the vote was not affected by the issue.

The cyber attacks on the webpage for voters abroad were launched from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, Indonesia and China, said council president Diana Atamaint.

“The online platform suffered cyber attacks that affected the fluidity of access to voting. We clarify and emphasize that the recorded votes have not been violated,” Atamaint said.

Multiple candidates had denounced problems with the webpage and Gonzalez called on Sunday evening for a do-over of the foreign vote.

More than 82% of those required to vote did so, Atamaint added. Voting is mandatory for those between 18 and 65.

Gonzalez has promised to free up $2.5 billion from international reserves to bolster Ecuador’s economy and bring back million-dollar social initiatives implemented by Correa – who has since been convicted of corruption – during his decade in power.

Noboa seemingly gained support after performing well in the only televised debate of the campaign.

A lawmaker until current President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the national assembly and called early elections, Noboa has focused his campaign on job creation, tax incentives for new businesses and jail sentences for serious tax evasion.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuadoreans-vote-new-president-election-marred-by-candidates-murder-2023-08-20/

Thailand could be heading for prolonged political unrest, after election-winning Move Forward party sidelined

Thailand’s Pheu Thai party will now form a new coalition without the election-winning Move Forward party and nominate its candidate, real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin, as prime minister.

Supporters of the Move Forward Party hold a portrait of Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward Party, during a protest in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, July 29, 2023. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Thailand could be in for a prolonged period of political unrest even if a new coalition is in power and the country’s next leader is chosen, after the election-winning Move Forward Party was sidelined from forming the next government, said observers.

Dr Kevin Hewison, the Weldon E Thornton emeritus distinguished professor of Asian Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, believes more twists and turns will come.

“So we’re in very murky and uncharted waters for Thailand, and there’s a lot of closed door dealings going on where the public is left aside,” he told CNA’s Asia First.

“I think that’s a potentially dangerous position for the electorate to be put in and for Thai democracy, because if the election doesn’t matter and all of the decisions on who’s going to be in government are done behind closed doors and through a small elite, it leaves the way open for more radical politics emerging.”

WHEN WILL POLITICAL DEADLOCK END?
A parliamentary vote to pick Thailand’s new prime minister on Friday (Aug 4) was delayed again, after the Constitutional Court deferred a decision in a case involving the progressive Move Forward Party that won May’s election.

The court on Thursday said it needed more time to review whether it was constitutional for parliament to bar Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat from being nominated as a prime ministerial candidate a second time.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai, the second biggest party in an initially agreed eight-party alliance, has since taken over the lead role in forming a government.

It will now form a new coalition without Move Forward and nominate its candidate, real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin, as prime minister.

“It’s very difficult to see what the new coalition is going to look like or what the vote for Pheu Thai’s prime minister might look like at the moment,” said Dr Hewison, whose research interests include social change in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand.

“There’s considerable dissatisfaction amongst Move Forward party supporters, (and) amongst other observers about whether the Pheu Thai party will align with the pro-military parties of the previous regime. If it does that, my prediction would be that there would be considerable unrest.”

Move Forward Party Leader Pita Limjaroenrat attends a voting session on the day of the second vote for a new prime minister, at the parliament in Bangkok, Thailand, July 19, 2023.REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa

After winning the election three months ago, Move Forward had put together an eight-party coalition with 312 seats in the 500-member lower house.

However, parliament has struggled to name a new prime minister, which requires a majority vote together with the conservative 250-member appointed Senate.

Mr Pita’s initial attempt to become prime minister last month fell short by more than 50 votes, largely because just 13 senators backed him. He was blocked from another try when parliament voted that he could not submit his name again.

Many senators, appointed by a previous military government, would not vote for Mr Pita because of his calls to make it illegal to defame Thailand’s royal family.

“There are plenty of countries where the party that comes first in the election doesn’t necessarily lead the coalition governments. So that’s not unusual,” said Dr Hewison.

Many Thai voters feel they “have been somehow deceived and that their vote doesn’t matter”, he added.

“And I think this is a problem for political parties going forward… But it’s pretty clear that there was not much choice for Pheu Thai. They had to separate from Move Forward if they were going to be able to establish a government again, only because the unelected senators stood in the way.”

HOW POWERFUL IS THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT?
Democracy in Thailand is now at a difficult point, “but it’s a point that was somehow designed by the previous regime”, said Dr Hewison.

“This, in some ways, was meant to happen to stop a progressive party coming to power, even if it was popular.”

House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha said the vote for a prime minister would be delayed pending the court’s decision.

The postponement shows how “incredibly powerful” the Constitutional Court has become in Thailand, said Dr Hewison.

“The court has put off a decision, which most pundits thought would be reasonably easy for them to make, to decide on whether there should be a second vote,” he added.

“So what we’re set with now over the next couple of weeks at least, is more backroom dealing, more and probably some increased dissatisfaction with the way that the process is going and a muddle along until something becomes clear. At the moment, almost nothing is clear on where Thailand’s politics is going.”

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-political-unrest-after-election-winning-move-forward-party-sidelined-pita-limjaroenrat-srettha-thavisin-3677761

Donald Trump says indictment is ‘great badge of honour’ – and another one will win him the election

The former president used a speech to Republicans in Alabama to say the multiple indictments against him have benefitted his 2024 presidential campaign.

Donald Trump has described being indicted as a “truly great badge of honour” – and suggested further criminal charges could help him win next year’s election.

Speaking to Republicans in Alabama, the former president said he goes up in the polls every tim

e an indictment is filed, describing the allegations against him as “fake” and a “sham”.

Trump also boasted that he is streets ahead of rivals vying for the Republican nomination – declaring: “Nobody even has a chance.”

Accusing Joe Biden’s administration of trying to interfere with his campaign, he added: “They are trying to say it is illegal to question the outcomes of a bad election.”

Trump vowed to “evict crooked Joe Biden” and “expel thugs and criminals from the halls of power in DC” if he is re-elected as president, and said: “We are going to have to win some battles… our country is going to hell.”

He once again accused his successor of being “the most incompetent and most corrupt president in the history of the United States” – and claimed the “radical left” would not be allowed to “rig the election of 2024”.

Elsewhere in the speech, Trump suggested it “makes no sense” to participate in debates with Republican rivals because they are so far behind in the polls.

“I love to debate – but you know, sometimes you don’t wanna be a fool. You want a smart president, you don’t want a stupid president,” he told the crowd.

The defiant speech comes a day after Trump appeared in a Washington DC court and pleaded not guilty to trying to overturn the 2020 election – later describing it as a “very sad day for America”.

And yesterday, he pleaded not guilty to additional charges related to his handling of classified documents after he left the White House.

Trump has used his legal woes to ask his supporters for cash – and claimed he could face “561 years in prison for a crime I did not commit”.

The Republican frontrunner has been criminally charged three times over the past four months, and is also facing civil action amid claims he paid “hush” money to a former porn actress in the run-up to the 2016 election.

The most serious charges currently facing the former president is the obstruction of an official proceeding and conspiracy to obstruct, which both carry a maximum prison sentence of 20 years.

The charge of conspiracy to defraud the US has a maximum term of five years, while conspiracy against rights has a maximum of 10 years.

Trump has become the first former or current president in history to have been criminally charged, but he has always denied any wrongdoing.

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/trump-says-indictment-is-great-badge-of-honour-and-another-one-will-win-him-the-election-12933945

Greek elections: Mitsotakis hails conservative win as mandate for reform

Greek conservative leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis has trounced his centre-left rival in the second election in a month and said he has a “strong mandate” to move faster on the path of change.

His New Democracy party (ND) won 40.5% of the national vote, almost 23 points ahead of Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza party.

He beat Syriza in May, but called new elections in a bid to win a majority.

“ND is today the most powerful centre-right party in Europe,” he told delighted supporters in Athens.

Mr Mitsotakis is credited with successfully returning the Greek economy to stability and growth after a severe debt crisis and three international bailouts.

Although many Greeks are struggling with the cost-of-living crisis, voters chose to stick with the party promising lower taxes and improved public health.

The vote came 11 days after a migrant boat tragedy off Greece in which about 500 people are thought to have died.

Three days of mourning were held, however the disaster had little effect on the campaign and Greeks voted to maintain economic stability.

“The people have given us a safe majority,” said Mr Mitsotakis as the extent of his victory became clear. “Major reforms will go ahead quickly.”

Last month, his party fell just short of a majority in the 300-seat parliament and his decision to call an election in a bid to form a stable, single-party government was vindicated by Sunday’s result.

Under Greek rules for a second election, the biggest party is awarded a bonus of between 20 and 50 seats. With more than 40% of the vote, New Democracy won all 50.

Mr Mitsotakis said he could not promise miracles, but that New Democracy had “high goals” to transform Greece with a better public health service and education.

Former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s centre-left Syriza had been soundly defeated in the first election and lost further ground in the second, with less than 18% of the vote. He dampened speculation that he would resign, saying that was a decision for his party members.

Source : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65997486

Turkey election: ‘Highly likely’ election will go to run-off as counting under way

Parties of both current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu have claimed to have an early lead, but if neither finishes with more than 50% of the vote they will face off in another round.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu cast their votes in Turkey

Turkey’s election appears to be heading for a run-off despite both main rivals claiming to have an early lead.

Voter support for current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dipped below the 50% needed to secure a victory, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency.

The opposition mayor of the Turkish capital, Ankara, said that it was “highly likely” the election was headed for a run-off at the end of the month.

Earlier, parties of both Mr Erdogan and main opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu both said they had the edge, with news agencies in the country offering competing results.

Both sides dismissed the other’s count. The official result is still yet to be announced.

Mr Erdogan, 69, who has been in charge of the country for 20 years, is seeking a third consecutive term as president but faces his toughest ever challenge.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a third term as president

If no presidential candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a run-off election will be held on 28 May.

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/turkey-election-rivals-both-claim-to-have-a-lead-as-counting-in-tense-race-continues-12881160