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The so-called “Magnificent 7” now wields greater financial might than almost every other major country in the world, according to new Deutsche Bank research.
The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalizations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech behemoths — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidiaand Tesla — outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country, the bank said in a research note Tuesday. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined.
Deutsche Bank analysts highlighted that the Magnificent 7′s combined market cap alone would make it the second-largest country stock exchange in the world, double that of Japan in fourth. Microsoft and Apple, individually, have similar market caps to all combined listed companies in each of France, Saudi Arabia and the U.K, they added.
However, this level of concentration has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock market.
Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s head of global economics and thematic research, cautioned in a follow-up note last week that the U.S. stock market is “rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being its most concentrated in history.”
Deutsche analyzed the trajectories of all 36 companies that have been in the top five most valuable in the S&P 500 since the mid-1960s.
Reid noted that while big companies eventually tended to drop out of the top five as investment trends and profit outlooks evolved, 20 of the 36 that have populated that upper bracket are still in the top 50 today.
“Of the Mag 7 in the current top 5, Microsoft has been there for all but 4 months since 1997. Apple ever present since December 2009, Alphabet for all but two months since August 2012 and Amazon since January 2017. The newest entrant has been Nvidia which has been there since H1 last year,” he said.
Tesla had a run of 13 months in the top five most valuable companies in 2021/22 but is now down to 10th, with the share price having fallen by around 20% since the start of 2024. By contrast, Nvidia’s stock has continued to surge, adding almost 47% since the turn of the year.
“So, at the edges the Mag 7 have some volatility around the position of its members, and you can question their overall valuations, but the core of the group have been the largest and most successful companies in the US and with it the world for many years now,” Reid added.
Could the gains broaden out?
Despite a muted global economic outlook at the start of 2023, stock market returns on Wall Street were impressive, but heavily concentrated among the Magnificent Seven, which benefitted strongly from the AI hype and rate cut expectations.
In a research note last week, wealth manager Evelyn Partners highlighted that the Magnificent 7 returned an incredible 107% over 2023, far outpacing the broader MSCI USA index, which delivered a still healthy but relatively paltry 27% to investors.
Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, suggested that signs are emerging that opportunities in U.S. stocks could broaden out beyond the 7 megacaps this year for two reasons, the first of which is the resilience of the U.S. economy.