For Vladimir Putin, the state visit to Russia by Chinese President Xi Jinping, which begins on Monday, provides a giant morale boost and a chance to showcase the much-vaunted new world order that the Russian leader believes he is forging through his war on Ukraine — in which the United States and NATO can no longer dictate anything to anyone.
Xi’s visit to Russia, just after cementing his precedent-breaking third term in power, brings together two men who have positioned themselves as leaders for life — and it sets the scene for global confrontation, with Beijing willing to use its partnership with Moscow to counter Washington, even if that means granting tacit approval to Putin’s brutal, destabilizing war.
“The grim outlook in China is that we are entering this era of confrontation with the U.S., the gloves are off, and Russia is an asset and a partner in this struggle,” said Alexander Gabuev, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
It remains to be seen whether this confrontation will heat up, pushing three nuclear powers to the brink of World War III, or merely marks the opening chords of Cold War 2.0. But Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies — in a competition for global influence and for alliances with nations such as South Africa and Saudi Arabia, which seem ambivalent but up for grabs.
In an article published Sunday evening in China’s People’s Daily, Putin gushed about the brotherly friendship between Russia and China, which he said were standing “shoulder to shoulder,” including against Western hegemony.
“Sticking more stubbornly than ever to its obsolete dogmata and vanishing dominance, the ‘Collective West’ is gambling on the fates of entire states and peoples,” Putin wrote. “The U.S.’s policy of simultaneously deterring Russia and China, as well as all those who do not bend to the American dictation, is getting ever more fierce and aggressive.” He also warned that NATO is “seeking to penetrate the Asia-Pacific.”
Xi’s trip, billed in Russia as the signature diplomatic event of 2023, could hardly come at a more useful moment for Putin. With his invasion largely stalled, military casualties mounting, and his personal reputation newly stained by an arrest warrant for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court, Putin is in desperate need of a distraction that props him up.
For the Russian domestic audience, the ceremonial pomp of hosting the Chinese leader will reinforce Putin’s image as a modern-day czar. Crowning the visit, a state dinner will be held in the spectacular 15th-century stone Faceted Chamber in the Kremlin, Moscow’s oldest building, constructed by Ivan III, the grand prince of Moscow, whose reputation as a “gatherer of lands” for annexing neighboring territories inspires Putin.
Given rampant second-guessing of Putin’s military strategy, the display of China and Russia as allies against the United States will also lend credibility to Putin’s assertions that the Ukraine war is the crucible by which Russia is creating the new post-American order.
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As the Chinese president lands in Russia, amid Putin’s feverish anti-Western rhetoric, the world is at a dangerous crossroads. The Russian leader has suspended New START, the only remaining arms control accord with Washington, and has staked his country’s future on what is now likely to be a long, unpredictable war, despite the staggering economic costs and misgivings of his own elite. The West, in turn, is sending more powerful arms to Ukraine, including tanks and fighter jets.
The alignment of authoritarian leaders may see the world divided into opposing camps for decades, stymieing cooperation on climate change, choking global action on human rights abuses, paralyzing international institutions and increasing tensions in contested regions.
But while Putin is searching for allies who can send weapons, boost trade or at least support him in global forums, for Xi, the visit seems more about positioning Beijing globally than about Russia or Ukraine, said Aleksei Chigadayev, a China analyst at Leipzig University and former lecturer at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics who left Russia because of the invasion.
“It’s a demonstration to the world, ‘We can mediate in international conflicts, and we are a reliable partner,’” Chigadayev said of Xi’s visit.
It is also a warning, he said, to Washington on the need to negotiate with Beijing and to Europe on China’s importance as a major global power. He added that the visit sends a message to Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East that China is a more viable source of support than the United States.
Xi may also be intent on demonstrating to Putin that if there is a new world order, then China will lead it.