The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the attack that ignited the war in the Gaza Strip, marked a major triumph for Israel. But Israeli leaders are also seeking to lock in strategic gains that go beyond military victories – to reshape the regional landscape in Israel’s favour and shield its borders from any future attacks, sources familiar with their thinking say.
With U.S. elections approaching, Israel is rushing to inflict maximum damage on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and seizing the moment to carve out de facto buffer zones in a bid to create an irreversible reality before a new president takes office in January, eight sources told Reuters.
By intensifying its military operations against Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel wants to ensure that its enemies and their chief patron, Iran, don’t regroup and threaten Israeli citizens again, according to Western diplomats, Lebanese and Israeli officials, and other regional sources.
U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to use Sinwar’s killing to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wind down the war in Gaza. But the Israeli leader may prefer to wait out the end of Biden’s term and take his chances with the next president, whether the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, or Republican rival Donald Trump, with whom Netanyahu has had close ties.
Before considering any ceasefire agreements, Israel is accelerating its military campaign to push Hezbollah away from its northern border while thrusting into Gaza’s densely packed Jabalia refugee camp in what Palestinians and U.N. agencies fear could be an attempt to seal off northern Gaza from the rest of the enclave.
It is also planning a response to a ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran on Oct. 1, its second direct attack on Israel in six months.
“There is a new landscape, a new geopolitical change in the region,” said David Schenker, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs who is now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute think tank.
Before Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel was “willing to tolerate a high-level threat”, responding to rocket fire from the Palestinian militant group and other foes with limited strikes, Schenker said. “No longer.”
“This time Israel is fighting on many fronts. It’s Hamas; it’s Hezbollah, and Iran is coming soon,” he said.
Hamas-led fighters killed around 1,200 people and seized more than 250 hostages during the assault in southern Israel, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s subsequent offensive has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to health authorities in the enclave.
Netanyahu said in a statement on Thursday that Sinwar’s death “settled the score”, but he warned that the Gaza war would continue with full force until Israel’s hostages were returned.
His office said it had nothing further to add.
Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Sinwar’s elimination marked a “great achievement” in efforts to destroy Hamas’ military apparatus, but added there were other commanders in Gaza.
On Friday, Hamas’ deputy leader in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, confirmed Sinwar’s death and said Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli “aggression” ended and its forces withdrew.
Israeli forces have inflicted other big blows on its enemies.
A series of high-profile strikes wiped out senior leaders including Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, Mohammed Deif, head of its miliary wing, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and its top military commander, Fuad Shukr.
Israel also claims to have eliminated thousands of the groups’ fighters, captured deep tunnel networks and severely depleted their weapons arsenals.
In September, thousands of booby-trapped communications devices used by Hezbollah members were detonated – an attack for which Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility.
But Israel’s ambitions are broader than short-term military victories, however significant, the sources who spoke to Reuters said.
BROADER AMBITION
A ground offensive launched in Lebanon over the past month aims to drive Hezbollah back around 30 km (20 miles) from its northern border, to behind the Litani River, and ensure the Shi’ite militant group is fully disarmed after 30 years of military support from Iran.
By doing so, Israeli officials argue they are enforcing a United Nations resolution intended to keep peace in the area and protect its residents from cross-border attacks.
Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted after Israel’s last war with Hezbollah in 2006 and repeatedly violated by both sides, authorized a peacekeeping mission known as UNIFIL to help Lebanon’s army keep the area south of the river free of weapons and armed personnel other than those of the Lebanese state.
Israel complains the two forces never gained control of the area from Hezbollah, long regarded as Lebanon’s most potent military force.
Hezbollah has resisted disarming, citing the need to defend Lebanon from Israel. Since last year, its fighters have used the border strip as a base for near-daily exchanges of fire with Israel in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza.
Israeli officials say the only way to enforce resolution 1701, and ensure the safe return of some 60,000 residents evacuated from northern Israel, is through military action.
“At the moment, diplomacy is not enough,” an Israeli diplomatic source told Reuters.
Lebanese authorities say the offensive against Hezbollah has displaced more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon, mostly members of the Shi’ite community from which Hezbollah draws support.