Systems theorist suggests the ‘next giant leap in evolution’ is nearing, but authoritarian politics could get in the way
Picture a caterpillar transforming into a butterfly. At a certain point, the creature enters a critical phase where its old form breaks down before emerging as something entirely new. According to a thought-provoking paper by renowned systems theorist Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, human civilization may be approaching a similar transformative moment, or what researchers call a “planetary phase shift.” And while the potential for positive transformation is enormous, Ahmed warns that rising authoritarianism could derail this evolutionary leap.
Ahmed, founding director of the System Shift Lab, presents compelling evidence in the journal Foresight that we’re living through an unprecedented period of change. Multiple global crises — from climate change to economic instability to technological disruption — aren’t just separate problems, but symptoms of an entire civilization undergoing metamorphosis.
“An amazing new possibility space is emerging, where humanity could provide itself superabundant energy, transport, food and knowledge without hurting the earth,” Ahmed says in a statement. “This could be the next giant leap in human evolution.”
The paper synthesizes research across natural and social sciences to develop a new theory of how civilizations rise and fall. It introduces the concept of “adaptive cycles,” a pattern observed in everything from forest ecosystems to ancient civilizations. These cycles move through four phases: rapid growth, conservation (stability), release (creative destruction), and reorganization. Think of it like the seasons: spring growth, summer abundance, autumn release, and winter renewal.
According to Ahmed, industrial civilization is now entering the “release” phase, where old structures begin breaking down. This explains why we’re seeing simultaneous crises across multiple systems. The fossil fuel economy is faltering, evidenced by a global decrease in Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for oil, gas, and coal. Meanwhile, renewable energy technologies are experiencing exponentially improving EROI rates.
But here’s where it gets interesting: these breakdowns aren’t necessarily catastrophic. They’re creating space for radical new possibilities. The study points to major technological innovations expected between the 2030s and 2060s, including clean energy, cellular agriculture, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and 3D printing. When combined, these technologies could enable what the researcher calls “networked superabundance” — a world where clean energy, transportation, food, and knowledge become universally accessible at near-zero cost while protecting Earth’s systems.
“This planetary renewable energy system will potentially enable citizens everywhere to produce clean energy ‘superabundance’ at near-zero marginal costs for most times of the year. This huge energy surplus – as much as ten times what we produce today – could power a global ‘circular economy’ system in which materials are rigorously recycled, with the system overall requiring 300 times less materials by weight than the fossil fuel system,” Ahmed writes. “[C]ost and performance improvements in autonomous driving technology could enable a new model called transport-as-a-service, leading private car ownership to collapse by about 90% – replaced by fleets of privately or publicly-owned autonomous taxis and buses up to ten times cheaper than transport today – as early as the 2030s.”
However, Ahmed emphasizes that technology alone won’t determine our fate. The key challenge is whether we can evolve our “operating system” — our social, economic, and cultural structures — to harness these capabilities for the common good. There’s a growing gulf between the old “industrial operating system” and emerging new systems that are inherently distributed and decentralized. This mismatch is driving major political and cultural disruptions globally.
Source : https://studyfinds.org/human-civilization-planetary-phase-shift/