The return of Canada’s House of Commons has triggered the unofficial start of the next election campaign.
OTTAWA — It’s unclear if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will still be in power at the end of the year.
The Liberal leader played up the uncertainty in a speech to caucus Friday, identifying the upcoming parliamentary season as a consequential one with political hazards that could trip the country into another early election.
“We’re in a minority Parliament, and we need to be ready for anything,” Trudeau told Liberal MPs ahead of Monday’s return of the House of Commons. Liberals seeking re-election are already door knocking and fundraising, thanks to new party rules.
Trudeau’s campaign-style tone is unmistakable.
“There are two leaders today that you have to choose between,” he said in reference to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, a formidable communicator who has been tapping into the politics of misery to build an anti-Trudeau coalition.
In his Friday speech to his party, Trudeau cast himself as a leader with a “positive vision of the future” and portrayed his rival as full of rage and light on policy and “positive solutions.” But by Saturday’s caucus meeting, the prime minister had softened his language on the threat of his government falling.
“We are still in delivery mode,” Trudeau said in French after being asked if his government is aiming to walk the talk on promises made in the last campaign, in case another one comes sooner rather than later.
Here are some hazards that could bring Trudeau some trouble in the year ahead.
Inflation, affordability and recession woes
Canada’s gross domestic product per capita dropped 1.3 percent during the pandemic, a stark contrast to the 1.2 percent growth tracked before 2020. The souring economy risks curdling Trudeau’s progressive agenda — and boosting Poilievre’s appeal to a broader swath of Canadians.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem offered a bleak forecast last week, predicting economic growth will be “pretty close to zero” over the next two, three quarters.
“It’s not going to feel good,” he said shortly after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points — its eighth consecutive hike in the past year to tamp down inflation.
A potential recession, mild or full blown, will give Conservatives ammunition to callback some sass from the last campaign when Trudeau asked a reporter for forgiveness, “if I don’t think about monetary policy.”
Macklem’s prognosis, and the Bank of Canada’s decision to pause interest rate hikes, puts pressure on the Liberals to slow government spending.
It will be a hard trick to pull off.
A new health deal with provinces and territories is anticipated soon, plus Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has promised a budget decked with measures in response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, so that Canada isn’t left scrounging for crumbs in a global energy investment race.
Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/30/trudeau-house-of-commons-campaign-00080105