When Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, the conventional wisdom was that the capital, Kyiv, would soon fall and the rest of the country wouldn’t last long against a much larger enemy.
Instead, it was that narrative that quickly collapsed. The Ukrainian army proved it could slow the advance of Russia’s forces and, if not drive them out completely, then – with enough support from the West – at least forestall defeat.
But nearly three years later, the outlook is again grim. Russia is expending huge amounts of weaponry and human life to make small-but-steady territorial gains to the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already controls. Ukraine, meanwhile, is struggling to minimize losses, maintain morale and convince allies that, with more military aid, it can turn the tide.
As this brutal war of attrition grinds toward its 1,000th day, neither side seems eager to negotiate. President-elect Donald Trump has said he could quickly end the war, though it is unclear how or in whose favor he might tip the scales.
This backdrop appears to be driving Russia’s strategy in eastern Ukraine, according to Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. Trump could try to force an end to the war by halting the supply of weapons to Ukraine, he said.
“If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine and a cease-fire leads to a frozen conflict, Russia wants to secure as much territory as it can now,” O’Brien said.
For Ukraine, the key to any cease-fire would be guarantees from the West that it won’t allow Russia to re-invade in the future. Otherwise, O’Brien said, “a cease-fire is a recipe for constant instability in Europe.”
Russia is advancing slowly but steadily in eastern Ukraine
In the war’s first year, Ukraine lost huge amounts of territory — but it also achieved notable victories. It resisted a much larger adversary with superior air power to survive as an independent country, and it reclaimed some land through gutsy counteroffensives, giving the underdog — and its wealthy allies — the confidence to stay in the fight.
In the second year, which was punctuated by Ukraine’s devastating loss of Bakhmut and its failed counteroffensive, the armies essentially fought to a standstill along a 1,000 kilometer (620 mile) front line. Toward the end of that year, the U.S. Congress delayed the approval of a $61 billion package of aid for weapons, and economic and humanitarian assistance.
With Ukraine’s ammunition dwindling, its outlook deteriorated significantly as the war’s third year began. In February 2024, the town of Avdiivka fell after months of airstrikes by Russia, which used highly destructive Soviet-era bombs retrofitted with navigation systems.
Source: https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-f7f56e494df1dbbcdec1853001796c45