Oscar Predictions 2025: The State of the Race After First Week of Critics Awards

Universal Pictures

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Commentary (Updated Dec. 6, 2024): We’ve officially entered the thick of awards season, and it feels like the Oscars playoffs are in full swing. The glitz, glamour, and chaos kicked off with the Gotham Awards, setting the tone for what promises to be an unpredictable and heated race. The East Coast ceremony delivered the first shock of the season when A24’s dark dramedy “A Different Man,” starring Sebastian Stan, took home the top prize over the presumptive favorite and buzzy contender “Anora.”

One day later, the New York Film Critics Circle added to the drama by naming Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist” as Best Film. This further complicated the narrative when it was nearly shut out of the Independent Spirit Awards the following day, where “Anora” led the nomination tally again alongside the spring indie sleeper “I Saw the TV Glow.”

Meanwhile, the National Board of Review threw its weight behind Universal’s undeniably popular blockbuster “Wicked,” giving Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande an extra prize. That came with acting prizes for Daniel Craig’s work in the cerebral LGBTQ drama “Queer” and Nicole Kidman’s work as a sexually charged CEO in “Babygirl.”

Next up is the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards on Sunday (predictions below) and the Golden Globe nominations on Monday. We’re all just trying to decipher what it could all mean. The newest Oscar projections are also listed, with category pages updated throughout the weekend.

Los Angeles Film Critics Predictions

Best Film: “All We Imagine as Light”
(alt: “The Brutalist” or “Wicked”)
Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
(alt: Sean Baker, “Anora” or RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”)
Lead Performance: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” and Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
(alt: Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl” or Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”)
Supporting Performance: Yura Borisov, “Anora” and Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
(alt: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” or Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”)
Screenplay: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
(alt. “Anora” or “A Real Pain”)
Cinematography: “Nickel Boys”
(alt. “Dune: Part Two” or “The Girl with the Needle”)
Editing: “The Substance”
(alt. “The Brutalist” or “Challengers”)
Music Score: “The Brutalist”
(alt. “Queer” or “The Wild Robot”)
Production Design: “The Brutalist”
(alt. “Nosferatu” or “Wicked”)
Foreign Language Film: “I’m Still Here”
(alt. “All We Imagine as Light” or “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”)
Documentary/Non-Fiction Film: “No Other Land”
(alt. “Black Box Diaries” or “Daughters”)
Animation: “Flow”
(alt. “Memoir of a Snail” or “The Wild Robot”)
New Generation Award: RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
(alt. Malcolm Washington, “The Piano Lesson” or Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio, “In the Summer”)

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