Young families with children are a shrinking part of the U.S. population in many areas. The decline is especially pronounced in major urban centers, including Boston, San Francisco, New York, Minneapolis, Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit, Seattle, Philadelphia, San Jose and Washington, D.C.
During the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown, many families with children moved to suburban or rural areas in search of more space. From mid-2020 through mid-2022, populations of young children fell by 10% in large urban counties that make up metro New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Chicago.
This trend has continued: Americans ages 25 to 44 – the years when people typically start families – are increasingly moving to rural counties and small metro areas.
From my research in economic development and public finance, I have observed unique local factors that influence this trend, but also recurring themes. Here are some reasons why major cities are losing young families, and the effects that follow.
What young families contribute to cities
Families form the backbone of thriving communities. Their presence positively affects city infrastructure, local economies, and overall quality of life.
Some people may wonder how this can be true when school districts within cities have to spend money on public schools. In fact, along with property tax payments, young families contribute to the economy by spending on housing, groceries, child care, health care, recreation, and education. They create demand for family-oriented goods and services, which helps generate stable jobs in sectors such as education, health care, retail, and hospitality.
