Dangerous Hurricane Helene will strike the Florida coastline around Apalachee Bay Thursday night with life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall.
Hurricane Helene is nearing landfall, which is forecast to occur close to the cities of St. Marks and Perry in northern Florida Thursday night around 11:00 p.m. ET with life-threatening conditions and the potential for catastrophic property damage.
Helene intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph at 6:30 p.m. EDT. By 9:00 p.m., winds were up to 140 mph and could still increase a bit more, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. Depending on the integrity of the eye wall, Helene should maintain at least Category 4 intensity up to the time of landfall.
Hurricane warnings were in effect for the Florida Big Bend area to just north of Tampa, while tropical storm warnings were in effect for much of the rest of the Florida coastline, except for the western part of the Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
“A landfall Thursday night near the city of St. Mark is anticipated. St. Mark is in the Big Bend area of the Florida Gulf Coast, which is the zone from the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle to the northwestern part of the Florida Peninsula,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “At the time of landfall, Helene is expected to be a dangerous Category 4 hurricane.”
There is still some risk the storm may drift a bit to the west or east, but steering breezes are more deliberate with this storm over the Gulf of Mexico compared to some in the past that have shifted their tracks considerably in the final hours before landfall. A landfall along the shores of Apalachee Bay is a certainty at this point.
At landfall Thursday evening – between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT – Helene will have maximum sustained winds of 130-135 mph, with much stronger gusts to at least 150 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 160 mph.
The StormMax gust is a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale of at least 157 mph. At this intensity, many trees will be uprooted, roofs will be removed and some structures may totally fail.
The impacts of a hurricane go well beyond its potentially destructive winds. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes incorporates storm surge, flooding, rainfall, population density and economic impacts in addition to maximum winds. Due to complications from torrential rainfall, these impacts occur not only along the coast but hundreds of miles inland.
By far, the most dangerous part of a hurricane, as it approaches the coast and makes landfall, is the storm surge. This potentially life-threatening aspect of a hurricane is the height of the water “above” astronomical tides. In a matter of minutes, water can surge with depth and force and lead to drowning.
Because of the shape of the coast around Apalachee Bay, Florida, which can trap excess water, and the forecast intensity and track of Helene, AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate a storm surge up to the height of a two-story building, or 15-20 feet, Thursday night. At this height, some single-story buildings along the coast may be completely underwater. In the most extreme surge locations, water levels may reach 22 or 23 feet.
A significant and dangerous storm surge will extend well to the south and east of where the eye comes ashore. For example, a storm surge of 6 to perhaps 10 feet can occur Thursday evening in portions of Tampa Bay, when winds flip to the west and cause the water to pile up on the eastern parts of the bay.
Because of strong easterly winds off the Atlantic Ocean, a significant storm surge and coastal flooding are expected from northeastern Florida to Georgia and South Carolina. Portions of Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, could be inundated from Thursday night to Friday.
A tremendous amount of rain will fall in northern Florida, with rain heavy enough to cause travel problems and lead to minor flooding in southern and eastern Florida and the potential for catastrophic flooding in northern Florida, especially the eastern part of the panhandle, with a general 8-12 inches of rain forecast.