To paraphrase Wesley Snipes as Blade in this summer’s blockbuster “Deadpool & Wolverine”: There’s only one “Barbenheimer.” There’s only ever gonna be one “Barbenheimer.”
Hollywood might never replicate the je ne sais quoi that prompted the explosion of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” double features, turning the box office battle between two very different films into a once-in-a-generation cinematic event. But multiplex owners are hoping that “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” achieve something close as the pink-and-green musical and the Colosseum-set action epic land in theaters on Nov. 22.
“It won’t happen in the same way, but the conversation around ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator’ is reminiscent of ‘Barbenheimer,’” says Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s director of movie analytics. “They’re fueling each other.”
Whether or not “Glicked” is the second coming of “Barbenheimer,” there’s mounting pressure on Thanksgiving movies — Disney’s “Moana 2” swims to the big screen on Nov. 27 — to deliver at the box office. October has been heavy on tricks and light on treats, with “Joker: Folie à Deux” tanking and “Venom: The Last Dance” falling short of other entries in the symbiote saga. And while December will offer “The Lion King” prequel “Mufasa” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” this Christmas season could be more muted since there’s no guaranteed billion-dollar blockbuster, à la “Avatar,” “Star Wars” or ‘“Spider-Man,” to close out 2024 and shrink the year-to-date deficit.
“The industry is looking at ‘Wicked,’ ‘Gladiator II’ and ‘Moana 2’ as a Holy Trinity of moviegoing,” says Robbins. “It’s hard to recall a Thanksgiving lineup with this much potential.”
All three are projected to open solidly with “Wicked” aiming for $80 million to $85 million over the weekend, “Gladiator II” looking to bring in $55 million to $65 million between Friday and Sunday, and “Moana 2” likely targeting above $100 million for the five days.
Cinema operators need patrons to gorge on film offerings to salvage a lackluster year at the movies. Overall domestic box office revenues are down more than 11% from 2023 and nearly 27% from 2019, according to Comscore. This time last year, exhibitors were grappling with lighter release calendars amid strike-related delays. Now, they’re contending with the residual effects of the months-long production stoppage.
