Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Against the backdrop of devastating wildfires that ravaged southern California, the 97th Academy Awards are poised to announce their nominations. The fires, which have brought destruction and grief to Los Angeles and its surrounding areas, hit close to home for the entertainment industry, with roughly 60% of the Academy’s 10,000 eligible voting members residing in the City of Angels.
To accommodate those impacted, the Academy extended its voting deadline by five days, sparking speculation on how this extension might influence the final nominations. Did this extra window allow underdog films to gain last-minute momentum, or did the chaos of the fires dampen turnout among voters directly affected by the tragedy?
Despite these uncertainties, this year’s Oscar race is as competitive and unpredictable as ever. At the forefront of the conversation is Jacques Audiard’s genre-blending crime musical “Emilia Pérez,” projected to garner to be one of the leaders, ranging from 10-14 nominations. This potentially would set the record as the most-nominated non-English film in Oscar history (surpassing the 2000’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and 2018’s “Roma”).
At the heart of “Emilia Pérez” is Karla Sofía Gascón’s incredible performance, which could make history as the first openly transgender acting nominee. However, with such a competitive lead actress race and critical darlings like Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) surging in the final days of voting, this could be a year where a presumed “lock” is absent on nomination morning. Or something completely unexpected, a category switch with Zoe Saldaña’s performance cited in the lead, alongside her co-star, which would be the first co-leading duo recognized since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for “Thelma & Louise” (1991). Or perhaps Gascón’s work would mimic the year when “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021) saw both Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya nominated in supporting, despite the former campaigning in the lead.
Projected nominee leaders (films): “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked” (10); “The Brutalist” (8) and “A Complete Unknown” (7); “Anora” and “Dune: Part Two” (6); “Nosferatu,” “Sing Sing” and “The Substance” (4); “Gladiator II” and “A Real Pain” (3)
Projected nominee leaders (studios): Netflix (15); Focus Features (14); A24 (13); Searchlight Pictures and Universal Pictures (10); Warner Bros. (7); Neon (6); Janus Films and Sony Pictures Classics (5); Mubi and Paramount Pictures (4)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)