Doubts about the Baku CoP emanate primarily from the uncertainties caused by the two wars raging in the neighbourhood.
As the year-end approaches, governments and representatives of industry, businesses and civil society are gearing up for the annual United Nations climate conference, commonly known as the Conference of Parties (CoP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This year, Azerbaijan, an oil-producing country, situated on the borders of Europe and Asia, will host the 29th iteration of the climate conference. The proceedings and outcomes of previous conferences have been under global observation as they have implications for how governments and businesses manage energy and environment-related policies. However, questions were raised early this time about the ability of the CoP 29 to deliver significant results.
Doubts about the Baku CoP emanate primarily from the uncertainties caused by the two wars raging in the neighbourhood. Rising energy prices, issues of energy security and unpredictable trade scenarios have upset the energy transition plans of several countries. The decision of some important corporate leaders and heads of government to pass on the Baku meet is either because of political affiliations or other geopolitical factors, causing further uncertainty.
It is not as though the agenda of CoP 29 is any less important than that of the previous summits. The description by the Azerbaijani Presidency of its priorities — of ‘enhancing ambition’ and ‘enabling actions’ — is cryptic and anodyne. It conceals some key objectives. The first is the new collective and quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance, which is a deliverable at Baku. It flows from the mandate that was arrived at the Glasgow CoP in 2021, the year when the implementation of the Paris Agreement began.
Another important item on the agenda is a decision on how the countries may raise or revise their targets for mitigation in the next cycle of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), beginning 2025, in light of the Global Stock Take (GST) held last year at Dubai.
Reaching an agreement on the collective and quantified goals for climate finance is indeed a major task of the Baku conference. The existing goal of mobilising at least $ 100 billion in climate finance annually is going to expire in 2025 and a new commitment of developed countries, under the Paris Agreement, has to take effect from 2026 onwards.
Mode of funding
However, there are serious concerns about how climate finance is defined—whether it includes all types of financial flows or only public grants and concessional finance. The discussion is mostly focused on the scale of finance, which includes the private sector, public finance, loans from multilateral development banks, grants, and debt.
Involving the private sector in reaching a higher scale of finance appears to be the main objective of the discussions. There are also varying estimates of the required scale.
CoP 28 had projected the requirements ranging from $ 4 trillion for renewable energy transition and $4 to 6 trillion for low carbon economic transformation to $5.9 trillion for all climate actions, including adaptation. The G20 group of independent experts has pegged the amount at $500 billion per year for official development assistance, including concessional finance for climate.
While private sector participation may be crucial to raising the scale of climate finance, there is, at present, little indication of how climate risks will be addressed for the international private capital to flow without raising the cost for recipient countries. Even if Baku is able to establish a long-term finance goal, the capacity of multilateral development banks to leverage private capital, without causing additional risk, will remain a key issue.
Source : https://www.deccanherald.com//specials/baku-s-test-can-cop-29-deliver-on-climate-promises-3269821