As summer comes to an end, a new report is revealing some alarming news about what future summers (and winters) may look like across the United States. Specifically, researchers project that extreme temperature-related deaths throughout America may double or even triple by the year 2036.
Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and other institutions analyzed temperature and mortality data for the entire contiguous United States to estimate how many deaths are currently associated with extreme temperatures and how these numbers might change in the coming decades. Their findings, published in JAMA Network Open, paint a sobering picture of the potential human cost of climate change.
The study found that between 2008 and 2019, extreme temperatures – both hot and cold – were associated with an average of 8,249 deaths per year in the U.S. However, scientists predict that between 2036 and 2065, this number could more than double to 19,349 deaths per year under a scenario with lower greenhouse gas emissions. Under a higher emissions scenario, the death toll could nearly triple to 26,574 deaths per year.
While both extreme heat and extreme cold can be deadly, the researchers found that the projected increase in heat-related deaths far outweighs the expected decrease in cold-related deaths as winters become milder. This challenges the notion that global warming might have a silver lining in reducing cold-related mortality.
The study also revealed stark disparities in how different populations might be affected by these changes. Older adults (those 65 and above) are projected to experience the largest increase in extreme temperature-related deaths. This is partly due to their greater vulnerability to temperature extremes, but also because the proportion of older adults in the U.S. population is expected to grow significantly by mid-century.
Even more striking are the projected disparities along racial and ethnic lines. The study estimates that by mid-century, Hispanic adults could see a staggering 537% increase in extreme temperature-related deaths compared to current levels, while non-Hispanic Black adults could face a 278% increase. In contrast, non-Hispanic White adults are projected to see a 71% increase.
These disparities persist even when accounting for population growth, suggesting that factors beyond demographics are at play. The researchers point out that many racial and ethnic minority communities live in areas with less access to air conditioning, more exposure to urban heat islands (where cities are significantly warmer than surrounding areas due to heat-absorbing surfaces and lack of vegetation), and higher risks of winter power outages.
The study also found that metropolitan areas are likely to see a much greater increase in extreme temperature-related deaths compared to rural areas, possibly due to the urban heat island effect.
While the projections are alarming, the researchers emphasize that they’re not set in stone. The study considered two different scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions – one with lower emissions growth and one with higher emissions growth. The difference in projected deaths between these scenarios underscores the potential impact of efforts to reduce emissions.
Moreover, the study didn’t account for potential adaptations that communities might make in response to changing temperatures, such as increased adoption of air conditioning or implementation of urban cooling strategies like planting more trees. However, the researchers caution that there may be limits to how much we can adapt, noting that even areas with nearly universal air conditioning access still experience significant heat-related deaths.
Source: https://studyfinds.org/temperature-related-deaths/?nab=0